When Chelsea steps onto the rain-slicked pitch at Turf Moor on Saturday, November 22, 2025, it won’t just be another away game. It’ll be a statement. Against a Burnley side clinging to survival, Chelsea enters as heavy favorites — not just on paper, but in spirit. The Clarets, managed by former Chelsea midfielder Scott Parker, sit dead last in the Premier League with just 10 points from 11 matches. Chelsea, under Enzo Maresca, sits third with 20 points, hungry to close the gap on Manchester City and Arsenal. And history? It’s not on Burnley’s side.
Chelsea’s Momentum vs. Burnley’s Desperation
Chelsea’s last three matches have been a masterclass in control. A 3-0 thrashing of Wolverhampton Wanderers on November 8 capped off a run that included a 3-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur and a gritty 2-2 draw with Qarabag FK in the Champions League. They’ve scored more than 1.5 goals in six straight away games. New signing João Pedro has been electric, while Estevao looks like he’s been playing in the Premier League for years, not weeks.
Burnley? They’ve lost four of their last five. A 2-3 collapse against West Ham United last week followed a 0-2 drubbing by Arsenal. Their defense? Fractured. They’ve conceded 22 goals in 11 games under Parker — more than any other team in the top flight. And yet, somehow, seven of their ten points have come at Turf Moor. That’s the twist. They’re not completely broken at home. They just can’t stop anyone.
Head-to-Head: Chelsea’s Unbroken Streak
Since 2017, Chelsea hasn’t lost to Burnley in the Premier League. Not once. In their last 10 meetings, the Blues have won seven and drawn three. Nine of those matches saw over 2.5 goals. The last time they met at Turf Moor? A 4-1 Chelsea win. That’s not a fluke. That’s a pattern. And the numbers don’t lie: Burnley’s expected goals (xG) of 8.3 this season is the lowest in the league — yet they’ve scored 14 goals. That means they’re either getting lucky or their opponents are making mistakes. Against Chelsea? They won’t get either.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s defense has tightened. They’ve kept clean sheets in three of their last five league wins. Their away record? Unbeaten in seven matches that kick off at 12:30 pm on a Saturday. This one starts at 7:30 am UTC — same time zone, same rhythm. They’ve been here before. Burnley? They’ve had more than 1.5 yellow cards in six of their last seven matches. Expect chaos. Expect fouls. Expect a referee with a full pocket.
The Injury Factor: Who’s Missing, Who’s Watching
Both teams are banged up. Burnley will be without Connor Roberts, Jordan Beyer, and Zeki Amdouni — their three most consistent defenders and creators. That leaves Parker with a makeshift backline and a midfield that’s already been exposed. Chelsea’s absence of Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, and Enzo Fernandez hurts, but they’ve got depth. João Pedro and Estevao have filled the gaps seamlessly. The Blues aren’t just surviving without their stars — they’re thriving.
It’s not just about personnel. It’s about belief. Burnley’s players look exhausted. Their passes are slow. Their transitions are sluggish. You can see it in their eyes. They’re playing not to lose. Chelsea? They’re playing to dominate. Maresca’s system is built on pressing, possession, and precision. And Burnley? They average just 39.1% possession at home. That’s not football. That’s survival.
Betting Lines and Expert Projections
Bookmakers have Chelsea at -217 odds — a 68% implied probability of victory. Burnley? +575. The projected score? 1-3, according to FootballPredictions.com, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. That’s consistent with the last 10 meetings. Action Network recommends the Chelsea -1.0 Asian Handicap at -125. Win by two or more? You win. Win by one? You push. Lose? You lose. It’s a smart bet. Why? Because Chelsea’s last seven away wins all came with at least a two-goal margin.
Experts at SportsGambler.com project Chelsea to score 1.87 goals and Burnley just 0.82. That’s not a guess. That’s math. Burnley’s defense allows 5.9 shots on target per game — nearly double what Chelsea gives up. They’ve kept only two clean sheets in 31 Premier League matches. That’s not a mistake. That’s a crisis.
What’s at Stake?
This isn’t just about three points. For Chelsea, it’s about momentum heading into the winter break. A win here puts them within touching distance of the top two. For Burnley? It’s about survival. Lose again, and they’ll be 11 points from safety with only 11 games left. The pressure is crushing. Parker, once a respected player, now looks like a man running out of time. The fans at Turf Moor? They’re quiet. Not angry. Just resigned.
There’s a quiet dignity in Burnley’s fight. They’ve won games this season. They’ve shown grit. But grit doesn’t beat quality. Not when the gap is this wide. Chelsea aren’t just better. They’re built differently. Faster. Sharper. More ruthless.
What’s Next?
If Chelsea wins by two or more, expect their name to be whispered in title conversations again. If they win by one? The pressure shifts. If they lose? It’s chaos. And for Burnley? A win would be seismic — the kind of result that changes a season. But the odds? They’re not on their side. Not this time.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Chelsea such a heavy favorite despite missing key players?
Even without Palmer, Neto, and Fernandez, Chelsea’s depth and tactical discipline under Enzo Maresca have kept them dominant. New signings João Pedro and Estevao have stepped up, and their away form is exceptional — seven straight wins at 12:30 pm Saturday kickoffs. Burnley’s defensive frailties (22 goals conceded) make them an easy target, regardless of Chelsea’s injuries.
Has Burnley ever beaten Chelsea in the Premier League recently?
No. Chelsea hasn’t lost to Burnley in any of their last 10 Premier League meetings (7 wins, 3 draws), with the last defeat dating back to 2017. Even at Turf Moor, where Burnley has earned seven of their 10 points this season, Chelsea won 4-1 in their most recent visit. The psychological edge is entirely with the Blues.
What does the 1-3 prediction mean for betting markets?
A 1-3 scoreline aligns with the over 2.5 goals market (which has hit in 9 of the last 10 meetings) and supports the Both Teams to Score (BTTS: Yes) bet. It also confirms the Chelsea -1.0 Asian Handicap as a strong play — a two-goal win covers the bet, and this projection suggests exactly that. Bookmakers have priced this outcome at 14/1, making it a value pick for accumulator fans.
Why is Burnley’s home form misleading?
Burnley’s seven home points look decent until you realize they came against bottom-half sides like Leicester and Fulham. Their losses to Liverpool and Arsenal — two of the league’s best — exposed their ceiling. Their 39.1% possession and 2.5 corners per game show they’re passive. At home, they survive. Against Chelsea? Survival isn’t an option.
How do injuries impact this match differently for each team?
Burnley’s missing trio — Roberts, Beyer, and Amdouni — are all key to structure and transition. Without them, their backline is exposed. Chelsea’s absentees (Palmer, Neto, Fernandez) are creative, but their replacements are already performing at a high level. The difference? Burnley’s squad depth is thin. Chelsea’s is elite.
What’s the most likely outcome for yellow cards?
Burnley has averaged over 1.5 yellow cards per match in six of their last seven games. With Chelsea’s high press and physicality, expect a feisty match. Analysts at Scores24.live predict over 3.5 total yellows — likely with Burnley picking up at least three. Referees won’t hold back in this high-stakes, low-skill clash.